By Thomas Harding

For the past six years I have called local real estate profession-als to ask for their predictions for the next year. Here are their fore-casts for 2010.

Jackie Lewis, broker, Green-tree Real Estate. The real estate market hasn’t been that bad for the past three months. I just hope that continues. Some high-end properties are start-ing to move now. One problem is that appraisals are coming in for less than the contract price. I think we have leveled out on home prices. Properties list-ed today are priced right and selling fairly quickly. But sell-ers that have been sitting for over a year don’t get it; they believe we’re still in 2004 and 2005 (when values were much hihger). We are getting calls on land, but, like homebuyers, buyers want deals. When peo-ple find out about impact fees in Jefferson County, they go to Berkeley County.

John Kilroy, broker, ERA Liberty. The number of real estate sales in 2010 will be much like 2009, but I think prices will come down some more. Fore-closures are going to drive the  prices down. Houses above $400,000 won’t sell in 2010 . . . nobody is foolish enough to buy them. Maybe a couple more expensive homes will sell — if they are unique. Homes in the $200,000 will not come down in price, but homes in the $400,000–$500,000 range will continue to fall — they have come down 40 percent from a couple years ago. If you have a home over $500,000, you bet-ter intend to stay there. Land sales will be totally flat in 2010. There will be very few land sales. Vacancy rate in apart-ments in 2010 will continue to be high, as in 2009. Commercial sales may get worse.

Christopher Colbert, lender, United Bank. Real estate sales will be difficult for some time. It will take time to work things out. House values will level out, and I believe that prices have hit the bottom because the market has adjusted. Land will start selling when the cost to build a house becomes the same as the cost to buy a foreclosed house. It could hap-pen in 2010 once confidence returns. Foreclosures should  slow in 2010, as the general economy improves. It will be a challenging twelve months for commercial property be-cause the cash flow is not there for commercial tenants to pay leases. High vacancies make it difficult for landlords to make their monthly payments. They have been hanging on for the past 25 months. Any surplus they had has gone.

Chip Hensell, realtor, Hensell Realty. Look for more of the same. Next year will be like last year: foreclosures will dominate the market for the next six months. Commercial sales will take the biggest hit. Charles Town may get a boost with table games. There will be a few commercial transactions through government or school developments, but almost noth-ing in the private sector. Rental apartments will continue to have a high vacancy. We need to get people back to work be-fore the real estate market will bounce back — and it will come back. Prices will remain flat in 2010. They have been level three or four months. Land has been the worst hit, and will re- main the worst because there is too much inventory. Berkeley County has ten years of lots. There is land today which is unsellable. Banks are not giving money to developers.It will take five years for land sales to come back, and one to two years for residential home sales to come back.

Peter Corum, branch manager, Franklin American Mortgage. The real estate market is com-pletely safe until June 30, 2010, at which point the federal tax breaks run out. We may even see some slight appreciation of one to two percent for the first half of the year. We will also see low interest rates through that time period. If global markets start to recover, the housing recovery will continue. In our geographic area, sales of any-thing priced over $250,000 will be very light. We don’t have the demographic pressure out of the Washington, D.C., area that we once had, so the price point in Jefferson County is not so good now compared to what it used to be. One reason is that Northern Virginia was veryaggressive on foreclosures, so home prices there droppedvery quickly. It made our mar-ket less competitive. Land will be dead for at least two more years. If you have staying pow-er, it is a great time to buy land. Commercial sales will be strong in the government sector, but not in the private sector.

Randy Conrad, Conrad Law Firm. Prices will stabilize in  year, though maybe by the end of 2010 we will see the number of foreclosures return to nor-mal. This will start when the unemployment rate reduces. Table games should really help us, as it will provide jobs and economic activity to jumpstart the housing sector. The real estate market continues to get better from the bottom up. I believe that 2010 will not see much improvement for homes priced over $300,000.

Here is my two cents worth. Land sales will remain low in 2010, and any sales that do take place will see huge price reduc-tions. Commercial sales will pick up around Charles Town, but apartment, shopping mall, and office vacancies will remain high. Residential sales will be active in the lower levels of the market. Mid-level homes (be-tween $300,000 and $450,000) will see some activity, but they will need to be aggressively priced to appraise correctly. Higher-end residential home sales will be sluggish, and will require large buyer downpay-ment as appraisals will be hard to find. Apartment vacancies will stabilize as the flood of townhomes declines and the unemployment rate falls. Exot-ic contracts like lease-purchas-es, FSBO (for-sale-by-owner),and owner financing will con-tinue to be strong. Foreclosures and short sales will continue to dominate the market, deflating house prices. County tax asses-sors will refuse to include what  2010, and at some time soon we will see reasonable appre-ciation — though it is hard to know when this will start. The  they consider to be “distressed sales” in their appraisals, re-sulting in inflated tax bills for local residents.   

Thomas Harding is broker for Greg Didden Associates, Shepherdstown West Virginia.